D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Chark has compiled a colossal 90.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Chark's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 78th percentile for wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.94 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 37.9% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 8th percentile among wideouts
D.J. Chark has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 5.25 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 14th percentile among wideouts
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).