Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The projections expect Diontae Johnson to total 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson's 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 63.2.
With an impressive 4.3 adjusted catches per game (78th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Diontae Johnson's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 61.4% to 58.0%.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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