Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -205 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Diontae Johnson is predicted by the projections to finish in the 87th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.
Diontae Johnson's 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 63.2.
Diontae Johnson profiles as one of the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 4.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, New England's CB corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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