Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
In this game, Diontae Johnson is projected by the projection model to land in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.1 targets.
With a remarkable 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson has run fewer routes this season (81.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (96.2%).
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
The Browns pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (52.9%) to WRs this year (52.9%).

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