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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 60.6%.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (54.7%) vs. wideouts this year (54.7%).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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