Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 9.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 28.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.