Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.5%) versus wideouts this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson's pass-catching performance diminished this season, averaging just 5.5 yards per game compared to 6.8 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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