Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (68.1%) to WRs this year (68.1%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Diontae Johnson's receiving performance has tailed off this season, notching a mere 5.6 yards per game compared to 6.8 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on a mere 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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