Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.8%) versus WRs this year (70.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson's pass-catching performance worsened this year, averaging a measly 5.2 yards per game vs 6.8 last year.
Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 61.8%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

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