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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 7.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Diontae Johnson's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 67.0.

Diontae Johnson's receiving performance has worsened this year, notching a mere 5.2 yards per game compared to 6.8 last year.

Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 62.6%.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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