Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 95.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to earn 8.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a mere 7.09 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 13th percentile among WRs
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.