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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+209/-317).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +214 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +209.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Diontae Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.8% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
  • Diontae Johnson has accumulated many more air yards this year (102.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
  • Diontae Johnson's 64.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 62.4%.
  • Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) to WRs this year (62.4%).
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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