Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+224/-348).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has posted quite a few more air yards this year (113.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).

Favors Under

Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 60.6%.
Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (54.7%) vs. wideouts this year (54.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

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