Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-413).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +253.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 24.4% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has accrued a colossal 92.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson's 61.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 89th percentile for WRs.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.8%) versus WRs this year (70.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 61.8%.
Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

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