DeVonta Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 24, 2026 4:13 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-99900/-99900).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling with backup QB Tanner McKee.
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Eagles, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.6 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
With an exceptional 25.0% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith stands as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.
DeVonta Smith has accrued far more air yards this season (129.0 per game) than he did last season (86.0 per game).

Favors Under

Right now, the most run-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (53.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (just 55.0 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Eagles profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
This year, the shaky Cowboys run defense has allowed a massive 1.17 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 7th-largest rate in the league.

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