DeVonta Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-199).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
The projections expect DeVonta Smith to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (29.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.0% in games he has played).
DeVonta Smith has notched a staggering 93.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
DeVonta Smith's 66.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 93rd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in football. in football.