DeVonta Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-228).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.89 seconds per snap.
Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with better weather in this game.
DeVonta Smith has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
In regards to air yards, DeVonta Smith ranks in the towering 89th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a striking 86.0 per game.
DeVonta Smith's 63.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 92nd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 49.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the most run-focused team in football near the goal line (52.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Titans run defense has given up a colossal 1.28 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 4th-biggest rate in football.