DeVonta Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-208).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
DeVonta Smith has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% last year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
As it relates to air yards, DeVonta Smith grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among wide receivers last year, averaging a monstrous 86.0 per game.
DeVonta Smith's 64.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 91st percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone run rate.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.

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