DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:07 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-148/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -142 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to call 64.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and running stats increased) considering playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We ought to be able to count on some regression with better weather in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
With an impressive 97.9% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, DeVonta Smith stands among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.6 plays per game.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.