DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-102/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 97.8% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
The leading projections forecast DeVonta Smith to earn 8.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.