DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 99.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The predictive model expects DeVonta Smith to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
DeVonta Smith's 64.1% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a an impressive reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 71.8% figure.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's group of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

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