DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.40 seconds per snap.
In this game, DeVonta Smith is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.6 targets.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.1% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
DeVonta Smith's 53.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 62.0.
DeVonta Smith's 4.6 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a a remarkable drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 5.6 figure.

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