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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects DeVonta Smith to total 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.

With an excellent 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (84th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the league in the NFL.

With an exceptional 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (75th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith places among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.

DeVonta Smith has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this season (21.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.1%).

This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered a measly 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.

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