DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 95.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to accrue 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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