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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+134/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -168.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

DeVonta Smith has run a route on 96.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

DeVonta Smith's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 61.2% to 69.5%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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