DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 96.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to total 7.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 17-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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