DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
With an exceptional 99.6% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith stands as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
In this contest, DeVonta Smith is expected by the predictive model to land in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 128.0) versus WRs this year.
The Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.2%) versus WRs this year (58.2%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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