DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:26 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a measly 7.6 yards.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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