DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects DeVonta Smith to total 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
DeVonta Smith has notched quite a few more air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (77.0 per game).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (75th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith places among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.
DeVonta Smith's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, totaling 5.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 4.37 figure last year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.
DeVonta Smith has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this season (21.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.1%).
DeVonta Smith has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).