DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (+109/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to accumulate 8.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among WRs.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (64.2%) vs. wideouts this year (64.2%).
The New York Giants pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.84 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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