DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (+107/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
DeVonta Smith has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 54.0 yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
DeVonta Smith's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 62.8.

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