DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+175/-254).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
DeVonta Smith's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 86th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
DeVonta Smith has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.29 per game this year.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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