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DeVonta Smith
NFL · Player Props
DeVonta Smith
WR · Philadelphia Eagles
Receiving TD
Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022 Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC
NFL Props DeVonta Smith Receiving TD

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+175/-254).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +175.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
  • DeVonta Smith's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 86th percentile for WRs.
Favors Under
  • The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
  • DeVonta Smith has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
  • The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.29 per game this year.
  • The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
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