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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -239 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

DeVonta Smith has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which places him in the 77th percentile among WRs.

DeVonta Smith's 57.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 86th percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.

DeVonta Smith has compiled far fewer air yards this season (80.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).

The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.

The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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