DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-277).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -228 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -277.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
DeVonta Smith has put up a monstrous 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
DeVonta Smith's 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 91st percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
DeVonta Smith's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 61.2% to 69.5%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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