DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
DeVonta Smith has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
DeVonta Smith's 60.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
DeVonta Smith's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.6% to 71.2%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
DeVonta Smith has accrued far fewer air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).

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