My Account Log Out

reorder

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -252 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.

DeVonta Smith has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.

DeVonta Smith's 60.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 89th percentile for wide receivers.

The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.

DeVonta Smith has accrued far fewer air yards this year (63.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).

The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

More DeVonta Smith Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™