DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (19.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.9% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in football.
DeVonta Smith has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
DeVonta Smith's 53.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 62.8.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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