DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+231/-363).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -279 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -363.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
DeVonta Smith has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wideouts.
DeVonta Smith's 62.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, catching a measly 59.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 17th percentile among wideouts

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