De'Von Achane Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

De'Von Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

De'Von Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-138).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
De'Von Achane has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
De'Von Achane has compiled a whopping 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
De'Von Achane has been in the 99th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a massive 32.3 mark since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.