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Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+110/-140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.Devon Achane has averaged 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in football when it comes to running backs (94th percentile).With a stellar record of 7.27 adjusted yards per carry (98th percentile), Devon Achane rates among the leading pure rushers in football last year.Devon Achane has been one of the top RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an exceptional 4.94 yards-after-contact last year while checking in at the 98th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.Miami's passing stats last year may be artificially deflated (and running stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with better conditions in this week's game.
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