Devon Achane Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
While Devon Achane has been responsible for 27.4% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Miami's run game in this game at 39.7%.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in football last year.
With an outstanding total of 94.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (100th percentile), Devon Achane rates as one of the leading pure rushers in football this year.
Devon Achane's ground efficiency (12.10 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (99th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

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