Devon Achane Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Devon Achane to notch 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Devon Achane has put up a measly -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 17th percentile among RBs.
Devon Achane slots into the 92nd percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 19.0 mark this year.
Devon Achane rates as one of the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 20.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
This year, the shaky Jets defense has surrendered the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a staggering 7.66 YAC.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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