Devon Achane Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Devon Achane is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets.
Devon Achane's 12.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 77th percentile for RBs.
Devon Achane has been one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 19.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
With a fantastic 7.6 adjusted yards per target (80th percentile) this year, Devon Achane stands as one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.
Devon Achane checks in as one of the top running backs in football at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a fantastic 10.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.