De'Von Achane Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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De'Von Achane

NFL · Player Props

De'Von Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

De'Von Achane Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+102/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the most run-centric team in the NFL (44.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to garner 18.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Among all running backs, De'Von Achane grades out in the 96th percentile for carries this year, comprising 71.8% of the workload in his team's running game.

Favors Under

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's group of LBs has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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