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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins

Devon Achane Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 45.4% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

In this week's game, Devon Achane is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.9 carries.

While Devon Achane has garnered 36.1% of his team's run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Miami's run game this week at 25.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (just 56.5 per game on average).

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats inflated) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends grade out as the best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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