Devon Achane Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Devon Achane Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Devon Achane to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack in this game (40.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.5% in games he has played).
The Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Buffalo's safety corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.

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