Devon Achane Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Devon Achane Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
While Devon Achane has been responsible for 27.4% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Miami's run game in this game at 39.7%.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in football last year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Washington's group of DEs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 10th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

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