Devin Singletary Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
Devin Singletary has generated 46.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (78th percentile).
Devin Singletary's ground effectiveness (4.66 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (80th percentile among running backs).
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game this week (35.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.6% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams defense owns the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.00 yards-per-carry.