Devin Singletary Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Devin Singletary

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Devin Singletary Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -278 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
Devin Singletary has run for 0.37 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (81st percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.06 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 3rd-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 37.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the end zone this week (25.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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