Devin Singletary Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Singletary Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to total 12.6 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Devin Singletary has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 69.9% of snaps vs just 57.9% last year.